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As a pro-defense liberal Democrat, who agress with you on most issues, yet believes we shouldn't leave Iraq prematurely, yet also recognizes that we need to do more to force the Iraqis to get their house in order, why should I vote for you to be commander-in-chief? In other words, what is your vision for keeping America safe from her enemies, and why should I vote for you, and not John McCain?
FWIW, I've been theorizing as to a hawkish case for Obama or Clinton, and a liberal case for McCain.
the case
Well, they couldn't appeal to you on the basis of the Iraq vote. Both are promising to have all combat troops out of Iraq within a year.
They could say they're more competent on security issues, and more likely to get people to stop hating us. I'd say Clinton is better on the former, and Obama better on the latter.
But really, this isn't something you're going to get mainstream Democrats to appeal to you on. Welcome to being Joe Lieberman.
But really, this isn't
But really, this isn't something you're going to get mainstream Democrats to appeal to you on. Welcome to being Joe Lieberman.
Yeah, it certainly seems that way.
"In the world you will find tribulation, but be of good cheer, for I have overcome the world."
John 16:33
If only you could ask and get the answers.......
Hi Raf,
You can imagine I've been asking myself that question ever since the primaries started. I figured McCain would be the Republican pick, but not with the ease I thought he would now seeing such a miserable slog in Iraq go on for three years. Back in 2004 I anticipated a far better strategy in Iraq, but anyway, may I make a suggestion? If you asked Hillary or Obama your questions you would not get a straight answer. Maybe if you asked specific questions about those issues YOU think define the tasks ahead, you might pin them down.
As an example from my view point, wouldn't it be nice to get a straight answer in regard to Iran:
1. Do you support General Odum's idea of a Grand Bargin with Iran? Would you have accepted Iran's 2003 offer?
2. How would you contain Iran's nuclear program and what do you think of the NIE Report AND events since that report was issued?
3. Do you think Iranian activity constitutes support of terrorism and if so, what as President would you do in response?
4. Would an Iranian sat launch vehicle consititute a long rang baliistic missile and what point would you act to prevent nuclear weapons from being placed on such missiles, if you would do anything at all?
I think in ten or so questions one could figure out that candidate's approach to Iran and I certainly think not answering or vague rhetoric ought to tell you something. I would also review past statements on the subject such as AIPAC speeches or Foreign Affair essays to see if answers are consitent with the record.
After about 100 questions covering China, Russia, The Middle East, Defense spending, South America, Missile Defense, Afghanistan and Iraq, Terorism etc. a picture should emerge.
Then I would give each candidate a chance to summaries their answers into a general characterization of their planned approach to Foreign Policy and National Defense. Would that help you to decide? Short of this imagined questioning, would searching for the answers count, or as Brian suggests, it doesn't matter unless there is some glaring mistep? Brian did vote for McCain in 2004.
Needless to say, Raf, I find Obama completely evasive and contradictory, yet Brain says don't worry. Hillary isn't that much more explicit, but there is some history and today Kosovo is Independent. McCain is rather explicit, but I would be interested in hearing his answers too, given his photo ops with Bush during the last seven years. Bitching softly about blunders does not give him a free pass out of jail, even if he might be the best option come November.
I simply would be a bit scared of a suddenly hawkish Obama (see Pakistan), and I think from what I have gathered, he is much more dubious a hawk than Hillary. I think Hillary would be a bit more level-headed and centrist.
Zbig is not a big plus for me, or is Malley or Khalidi regarding Obama. McCain may be the safer bet to be a bit Liberal yet hawkish. Well, I have made my feelings known, but again, without direct questioning that media should have long ago demanded, you will not get straight answers, unless things change after the primaries. And then it might be too late for one of the two Democrats.
You will probaly have to specualte, extrapolate, compare, read into etc. and then make the best judgement. I just wouldn't bet the house on a smooth talker and a pair of Kings.
Yeah Max, I do think it's important to get a grasp of their
pverall foreign policy approach, and hope the weight of the office will force them to behave responsibly, which believe it or not, I think it might.
"In the world you will find tribulation, but be of good cheer, for I have overcome the world."
John 16:33
Raf, you make the same guess as Brain
Read the American Thinker article, read the thread that Simon started above, explore and compare what Obama has said and what he says now backed by advisors he picked. Read what the winners in Pakistan say. I do think there are many ways to play out foreign policy without becoming an idiot dove. There are clever and shrewd ways, and weak ways. Read the Brooks editorial. Obama, if he wins may so polarize the climate that he won't get the support and bipartaniship we would require to face some coming storms. So it does matter, That is the point some deny.
Clinton and Kennedy made some starter mistakes. Our adversaries are pretty shrewd. If it wasn't for the type of divisive campaign Obama has run and the weak foreign policy staff and statements, maybe it doesn't matter. But look at Iraq. Doesn't a great team and a killer coach matter? That is what you have to ask yourself, not the simple question about Iraq that gets a simple and pandering answer. The last thing I want is Malley near any levers, more so than Sandy.
the idiot dove hypothesis
It's oretty clear to me that you feel you've taken a good enough measure of Obama to dismiss the idiot dove hypothesis out of hand. Well done, Obama's a lot of things, but an idiot just aint one of them. I don't think he'll turn out as much of a dove either.
People who oppose Obama are REALLY going to have to do better than that. Because people won't buy such simplistic dismissals. Once we get the gen elec, Obama will modulate his tone if he's the nom.
I'm not sure who I'm going to vote for either. But just like you, I am skeptical that the actual foreign policy we get after GWB will differ all that much depending on whose arse is on the hot seat. Such a large portion of global circumstances are beyond our control, so our realistic options are going to be limited. Sadly, no one can say that while running for President. But my sense is that all 3 are well aware.
__________
I have often said, and oftener think, that this world is a comedy for those who think, and a tragedy for those who feel. -Horace Walpole
I may vote for Colbert
Of course Brian I never thought Obama was an idiot dove. I wish however you would at least admit that centrists and even hawks can tow different lines. Reagan was a hawk and to a degree so is Zbig. So was Kennedy. The claim I was making (perhaps it was too obvious) was that different pathways lead to different results. The office doesn't simply impose some martial mindset. If you read my zillion words (no even I can't) you ought to consider the totality of Obama's statements, records, advisors - like Zbig, Malley, and others, even gurus like Huntington or even Khalidi. Hell, there's even Avery. I am suggesting from Patrick to Michelle, from 2004 to the present, from lifted Malcom X to identity politics and preacher personas, maybe, just maybe, Obama could be a Black Carter instead of a Black JFK. How strange it is, given the momentousness of this election to vet so little and be swept away in a tide of unjournalstic journalism? Apart from the fact, Obama supporters seem to me more neoevangelical Liberals, I don't usually buy the conventional line. I have blistered Obama from the bigging because I saw the game and privately considered him the top dog given where media was going. Was that not obvious? I think Simon sensed that too.
I am glad you see that different butts produce different results and I have only been trying to make the case that for a "brilliant wonk", Obama seems to me a Manchurian candidate with an obnxious wife and some irritating and suspect advisors. I smell something rotten in Dennmark, that's all. Why you think the office changes this escapes me, but I accept the possibility as a matter of probabilities, slim as they might be.
Hillary is a known quantity and so is McCain. The more I read the link, "read this and weep" (you can find it and the Boston Globe was on the case long ago with the Patrick Obama deal), the more crazy it sounds AND the more plausible.
Last point. Most of my alarms over the last few years (God, has it been that long?) were projected concerns that most experts targeted for the end of this decade and the beginning of the next. I never shouted the sky was falling, well not in the immediate future anyway. So if we get some crap policy on top of the last eight years, we are in pretty bad shape and "some" genies are out of the box. I know at heart, you do not like being told what to believe and support and personally, I think you actually are almost as naueseated as me. You just brush it off more and seem more fatalistic.
No Obama is not an idiot or a dove. He may be worse. And then, Brian, like most thingss, he may surprise me and shed hallowness and handlers and fill that role. I do hope he will change and turn the page on a dubious message of rhetorical promises. Anything is possible. In that. I do believe.
I simply would be a bit
I simply would be a bit scared of a suddenly hawkish Obama (see Pakistan), and I think from what I have gathered, he is much more dubious a hawk than Hillary. I think Hillary would be a bit more level-headed and centrist.
Actually the Pakistan scenario was the first card the antiwar played when the antiwar started ranting and raving about Iraq. Anyone who seriously believes that the United States can launch preemptive raids into Pakistan without serious, serious repercussions is deluding themselves. I listened to Justin over at Donklephant give me a lecture on how this is a good thing and perfectly in line with his adoration of Barak Obama.
The fact of the matter is that I have analysed Obama's foreign policy speeches and he is a bumbling idiot when it comes to foreign policy.
For example he calls Iraq our enemy but then wants Iraq to understand that we want to be moderate and basically calls on Iran to change their minds.
He wants to negotiate peace between the Palestinians and the Jews but calls the leadership of the Palestinians the problem. This right their shoots himself in the foot. Foreign policy 101 and he fails. He is what I call the OBOMB.
A bomb waiting to happen. His domestic agenda will be moderated by congress. Filibusters, lack of consensus. But his Foreign Policy that is what scares me. If Obama had nothing to do with foreign policy I would vote for him myself. He seems to be a really nice guy.
He just has no experience and if he applied for the CEO of any fortune 500 company with his resume they would laugh him out of town. This would be funny if it wasnt so damn serious.
I have made a decision though. If he wins I will throw my support from Hillary Clinton to John McCain as long as he does not pick Huckabee as his vp.
Exploring the underpinnings of Obama's foreign policy
Zbig
Iran
"Indeed as some Israelis have lately pointed out, and I emphasize some Israelis have lately pointed out, increasingly the only prospect if this continues is Israel becoming increasingly like apartheid South Africa -- the minority dominating the majority, locked in a conflict from which there is no extraction. If we want to prevent this the United States above all else must identify itself with peace and help those who are the majority in Israel, who want peace and are prepared to accept peace.
All public opinion polls show that and the majority of the Palestinians, and I believe the majority of the Jewish community in this country which is liberal, open-minded, idealistic and not committed to extremist repressions.
The United States as the government, but all of us as citizens and Democrats particularly, will soon have an opportunity to underline their commitments to a peaceful solution in the Middle East because in the next two weeks a group of Israelis and Palestinians are going to unveil a detailed peace plan on which they have been working for months and months. It?s a fifty-page document with maps and detailed compromise solutions for all of the major contentious issues, solutions which public opinion shows 70% of the Israelis would accept.
When that happens what will be the stance of the United States? Sharon has already condemned it, and not surprisingly. I hope we do not decide to condemn it. I hope we will show at least a positive interest, and many of us as citizens, as people concerned, should I think endorse it because if we count on the people who want peace eventually we will move towards peace. But they have to be mobilized and given support.
I think one of the reasons that that support from the United States has not been forthcoming is in fact political cowardice which I think is unjustified because I have real confidence in the good judgment, both of the Israeli people and of the American Jewish community and more basically of the basic American preference for a moderate peaceful solution. (Applause)" 2003
What happened was Sharon pulling out of Gaza which must have shocked Zbig. The rise of Hamas goes directly against his considerations above (the majority of Palestinians want peace) as he didn't predict what would happen between Fatah and Hamas. He says zero on Iranian support of terror and predicted in articles after 9/11 that a wave of moderates would displace hardliners in Iran. He didn't suggest any kind of surge would be an improvement in Iraq. He predicted a US strike on Iran by now. He has suggested no alternative to keep Iran from the bomb and his track record on Afghanistan, even arming OBL in the first place and helping to oust the Shah before any moderate alternative was set is pretty clear. His basic thrust has been BAD Bush and I would suggest Zbig's judgment is as questionable as Bush's, if not more so.
Of course you can read all of this at Wikki So I suggest once again to all considering Obama to inquire into Brzezinski (Afghanistan and Iran among several events), Huntington, Malley, Volker and even former Clintonites such as Rice and ask what neoCarter foreign Policy might be unleashed. Why are these people gravitating to Obama, or had Obama already gravitated to these people at Columbia and Harvard? Against this ask what counterwieght is there to this road map in Hillary and McCain.
Question I would ask Hillary Clinton about her "experience"
Hillary Clinton keeps touting "35 years of experience" in her speeches. What experience is she referring to? Has she been a governor and run a state? Has she been a cabinet member involved in setting foreign policy? Has she been a CEO of a major corporation? I believe the answer to all of those questions is no. So what experience is it she is claiming makes her so much more qualified to be president than anyone else including Obama?