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There was much ado over the weekend about a Der Speigel interview with Iraqi PM Maliki that Der Speigel claimed showed Maliki's "approval" of Obama's Iraq withdrawal plan. Indeed, one commenter here claimed that Maliki was "explicitly endorsing Obama's withdrawal plan."
When Maliki issued a statement saying that his remarks had been "misunderstood, mistranslated and not conveyed accurately" and that withdrawal should be contingent on conditions on the ground and not on a fixed timetable as called for in all versions of the "Obama Plan," critics immediately counter-claimed that he was waffling under White House pressure. The key difference here is that of a fixed timetable regardless of conditions, and a preferred but mutable time horizon dependent on conditions. Obama's Plan is characterized by the former, and standing doctrine by the latter. This exact distinction is crucial--without the former, there is no real support of the Obama plan.
Now let's look at the facts, shall we?
Welcome to the incredible changing translation. (As distinct from the pre-pivot time-shifted unrefined Obama Iraq withdrawal plan...) There are actually two versions and a direct rejection from Maliki as to Der Speigel editorial interpretation of Maliki's answers. Let's start with the original Der Speigel English-language translation, as I read it when it first appeared on their website and as others captured it:
SPIEGEL: Would you hazard a prediction as to when most of the US troops will finally leave Iraq?
Maliki: As soon as possible, as far as we’re concerned. US presidential candidate Barack Obama is right when he talks about 16 months. Assuming that positive developments continue, this is about the same time period that corresponds to our wishes.
From this very thin soup--a preference for a general time horizon, conditions permitting--Der Spiegel somehow made the claim that Maliki was showing "his approval of Barack Obama's withdrawal plans," which in all versions have been notably short on cautionary conditions and insistent on commencing withdrawal with imposed and settled timelines regardless.
But a funny thing happened after I first read the interview. Der Spiegel quietly and without any notation or acknowledgement changed the text of the translation on their site, in the process changing the meaning to more closely conform with their clearly unsupported original editorial assignment of meaning. That passage NOW reads:
SPIEGEL: Would you hazard a prediction as to when most of the US troops will finally leave Iraq?
Maliki: As soon as possible, as far as we’re concerned. U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes.
Quite a difference, that. Der Spiegel says "“SPIEGEL stands by its version of the conversation,” but they don't say which version they're standing by, and still have not acknowledged changing the the text after publication. The phrase now missing from the current Der Spiegel story covers precisely the point that Maliki's office says was misrepresented--dependence on conditions versus fixed and immutable timetable--and Maliki made no statement rebutting the story until the actual published text was quietly changed.
NEITHER translation amounts to Maliki "supporting" Obama's plan of a fixed withdrawal timetable, much less an "explicit endorsement" of it, or even to more than a stated general preference for a shorter ballpark time horizon, subject to conditions.
What we have here at best is partisans trying to over-parse nuance into certainty via multiple languages and disputed translations--with the original speaker's OVERT and UNAMBIGUOUS clarifications being dismissed out of hand in favor of multiple and muddled translations.
BONUS: Drudge claims to have the McCain editorial that the Gnu Spork New York Times has refused to print. Pending confirmation, the Drudge Rule applies.
UPDATE: Some downright prescient relevant information on media "nuancing" of Maliki speeches and statements.
Honestly, when this was first mentioned here the other day,
it sounded dubious (that is, the idea that Maliki had endorsed Obama's timetable scheme), and initial suspicions appear to be correct. By any stretch or translation, as you pointed out Tully, there is a huge difference between a preferred timetable, adjusted for conditions on the ground, and a fixed, artificial timetable irrespective of conditions on the ground. The former is Obama's current position, and the latter has been the plan in place since 2005.
The thing is, Obama's earlier "refined" plan that he put out a month ago, before additional pivots leftward, was a conditional withdrawal plan. Leave in 16 months, unless things change.
At the end of the day, Obama is either lost on the distinction, or grabbing at straws...
"In the world you will find tribulation, but be of good cheer, for I have overcome the world."
John 16:33
Yep. In the meantime, Iraq
Yep. In the meantime, Iraq has clarified Iraq's position, which seems to agree with my own stated take.
Remember that Obama's Plan is only applicable until he decides to "refine" it again. ;^)
As I noted elsewhere
The Democratic focus on Maliki is strange given their opinion of him over time. A puppet, a panderer, corrupt, leaning towards Iran, inept, etc. What we see here is an Obama willing to hang on every morsel of possible spin in the face of the coming hammer to his poor judgment.
He called the surge doomed to failure. He pandered to the Iraq Is Lost crowd; he wanted his withdrawal written in stone while leaving open the possiblity of re-invading Iraq should AQ reappear. He still seems to see Iraq in isolation despite his BS hard-line against Iran a few weeks ago. Iran wants us out of Iraq ASAP. Obviously Obama thinks our negotiating position is stronger if we telegraph our intent. Brilliant BO.
He continually connects Iraq to Afghanistan while consciously sidestepping the real causes of the violent spike in Afghanistan. The moderates in Pakistan he predicted would be our best hope have outdone Musharraf in capitulating to the militants. They have reacted to more US strikes by threatening to end their support against AQ and the Taliban. What the media is failing to shout about is that Obama was WRONG about Iraq and Wrong about Pakistan. He is Wrong about the real causes of problems in Afghanistan (NATO) having failed to hold a single meeting of the sub committee he chairs on NATO. Meanwhile he calls for resting our soldiers in Iraq by sending them to Afghanistan. Will he tell Europe they are failing in Afghanistan or will he continue to blame Bush? Will he advocate using the lessons learned from Iraq in Afghanistan or will he avoid such honesty and offer up some BS? Will he contest the next NATO commander and present winning general in Iraq AND Fallon? This is shaping up as another redacted mess for Obama who will find few allies in the Middle East for his strategies. Busharraf did a better job than the present Gucci government, period.
And this thought: since when do our leaders advocate for another government's position? Shouldn't Obama be advocating what is in OUR best interests? Fallon lays out why it is in our best interests to stay a while in Iraq and strengthen stability. Democrats would have already left the deaths in vain. Obama is now seen as jumping on any twisted translation to support HIS view regardless of our military or even national polls who are trending towards seeing Iraq through to complete victory.
I want to hear Obama praise the administration for finally getting it right. I want Obama to commend McCain for calling on Rumsfeld to resign and a surge to begin. This guy bucked the Republicans AND the Democrats and so far the Media is loath to give him the credit he deserves. Had Obama been in charge, Maliki would probably be victim of terror and AQ still holding strong in Iraq. Think about that when you consider Obama's supreme judgment and honesty. By November, polls will show Obama has lost Iraq as an argument for his good judgment. His notions on Iran will be tattered. His position on Pakistan and Afghanistan will be seen as both contradictory and pandering.
Yes, my comments here are political, but rest on a litany of fact.
Some meat there. Do note
Some meat there. Do note that (suprise!) European nations HAVE stepped up or are stepping up their troop presence in Afghanistan. But yeah, holding your breath waiting for Obama to admit that he was wrong on anything ever is courting anoxia.
As best I know (I admit I haven't checked very closely) the official Obama campaign has not made the claims that are being refuted here in my main posting. I'm not gonna tag the campaign or candidate with things they haven't done. I'm sure they enjoy the spin, it's certainly possible they're inciting some of it via helpers, but they are not promoting it openly via the campaign that I have noticed.
Will Europe see Obama having the better judgment?
Yes, France and England have been getting more vocal after Canada threatened to pull out of Afghanistan. Italy and Germany don't want to be anywhere near gun fire. Norway?
Poland has more steel.
What I don't get about MR's response below without being the least bit personal (he is actually a funny dude) is how we went from Iraq is Lost (yes, that was a title from a former MR posting) to Iraq is Won so let's bolt ASAP. Now I understand Maliki's posturing. He's doing an Obama, but Obama clearly said leaving a while ago would bring peace and that the surge would fail. Does MR actually think Iraq would not have slipped into chaos? Or am I crazy? Instead, McCain advocated a surge that apparently worked. Did it work MR? Did it save Maliki?s ass and did Obama support it?
So how is it that Obama now wants to sound intelligent about Iraq and pretends to have the better judgment? He wants everyone to forget that he called Iraq a failure and that our being there was causing MORE chaos. I can only guess what Bobby must think about this absurdity. Obama is looking for a shred of daylight to keep his timeline looking cogent and his judgment not completely wrong. He knows as Iraq moves towards stability and peace, he looks more foolish with his doomsday prediction. He wants to take the spot light, when McCain and Patraeus should be getting the honors. And MR finds nothing wrong about this situation. I guess he has become so use to Obama?s duplicity that he overlooks the same playing both sides in Maliki who Democrats were roasting just months ago. Now he is now their validation?
Fallon was yesterday's Democratic validation, but now he is disregarded as he advocates for a longer stay in Iraq.. Even McCain was praised when he contested the president over phase IV, but now he is McBush. Not one word of praise for McCain?s strategy.
Yes, Obama remains a bit above the frey, having his minions spread the spin.
Democrats vilified Musharraf and Richardson had the smarts to predict that 1. Pakistan was mostly moderate (Biden gagged) and 2. a moderate victory would speed the end of extremists in Pakistan. Obama gave a nod to this bombastic thinking and Obama touted his foreign policy experience as his spring break in Pakistan. He called Hillary's less-said-the-better thinking as lying to Americans and arrogantly boasted about getting OBL. What a resume. Forgive me if I laugh as Democrats proclaim Maliki's victory over Sadr, the triumph of US resolve in Iraq without a single Democratic Kudo to those who battled to make this happened. And having failed so miserably to predict any victory, they presume to have the better judgment. Republicans saved Iraqis from AQ fodder and the tyranny of Saddam, no matter how bungled the post Saddam strategy was. Did someone fix it? Was it the Democrats?
And if media had much self-respect, it would take a long look at the road to possible victory and place Obama, Pelosi, Reid and others as landmines along the way.
And for all of those who selectively read American Thinker, it was a year ago when the NYT declared Iraq was Lost. I guess a year ago must seem like a decade to partisans. Today, the NYT refuses to print an op ed by McCain while trying hard to show that those like Obama who echoed the Iraq is Lost meme, actually now have the better judgment on Iraq than those like McCain who have created the conditions for victory in Iraq that the majority of liberals (myself not included) declared was impossible unless we leave. When media cannot judge their own judgment, how can readership accept their judgment of others? To compare the declarations today of some like Obama and Pelosi from a year ago is nothing short of NewSpeak in motion. Until the NYT prints McCain's op ed, I will no longer buy the NYT.
France, England, and Germany
France, England, and Germany aren't just getting more vocal. They're sending more troops. And at least in the case of the Brit, those troops actually leave their encampments to do stuff other than run clinics and look pretty.
Yes and the Brits have been
Yes and the Brits have been taking some fire. I still think Germany stays far from the action. Given the size of Europe's army, it is really pathetic they can't send more troops.
I see Jon's comment below and I guess readers still don't see that Maliki is saying 2010 if conditions permit isnot the Obama 16 months or I turn into a rabbit. What is more amazing is the justification that Obama is right on his time table because he was completely wrong on his prior judgment. Now we can go because there is relative peace brought about by US strategy. Jon knows full well what Obama's postion was and then asks why some are not happy that Obama was wrong, would have pulled the plug and now acts like he and Maliki are on the same page concerning mandatory time tables.
Nope, Sadr is not finished. Things could flare up and get ugly. Sunnis could leave the government as quickly as they joined a few days ago. Hizb'Allah is sending their people to Shia strongholds. For a candidate who has not a single word of praise for McCain's judgment regarding the surge ( and his swipes at Rumsfeld and phase IV planning), who demanded we leave an inevitable civil war with AQ strong, who questioned whether Iran killed any US soldiers in Iraq, who first joined the crowd calling Patraeus, "Betrayed us", and to this day still thinks Saddam was better building WMD now than a free, Democratic Iraq, to act like he has superior judgment on Iraq is the height of arrogance. Eventually the media will grab on to this story and when the general returns with praise, I rather doubt Obama is going to butt heads with a true American hero. The debates will undoubtly bring this up as we see Obama trying to reframe the playing field with his superior judgment blathering now about Afghanistan and his former positions on Pakistan.
Desperate, pitiful stuff,
Desperate, pitiful stuff, Tully. The precise mirror image of liberals who couldn't admit that Maliki had beaten Al Sadr. You are in deep denial.
But you know what? Whatever, as the kids say. Say the sky is green if that makes you happy. It isn't going to matter. Maliki threw McCain overboard. McCain knows it, and when you get past your partisanship you'll end up admitting it, too.
How is it Moran gets it and you don't? He's an even bigger Obama-basher than you are.
Moran: "Maliki is running
Moran:
"Maliki is running for office. With elections scheduled for October, there is little doubt that he wishes to forestall any move by his rival, Moqtada al-Sadr, to make hay out of Maliki's close association with the occupation. In short, he is moving to shore up his right (nationalistic) flank by being seen as eager for the Americans to leave.
As the need for American troops to stay in Iraq lessens, the Iraqi people will be more anxious for us to go. Candidates who recognize that political reality will probably do well in the elections.
Maliki's Shia brethren are split on the issue of the occupation with a large segment supporting al-Sadr's call for our immediate withdrawal and a slightly larger faction who recognize the reality of the occupation but want most of us out as soon as it is safe to go. It is these voters that Maliki is appealing to. The bitter enders who support al-Sadr will never win a majority unless they can convince many of the realists that we will never go and that politicians like Maliki are encouraging us to stay.
Hence, Maliki's two step on withdrawal; being obtuse with Bush while pronouncing Obama's specific proposal acceptable. He doesn't want to offend Bush/McCain but for political reasons finds it desirable to pander to those Shias who are worried about the US overstaying its welcome."
Now are you claiming that without the US, Sadr can't resist Maliki? And when others said to hold on in Iraq, were YOU in deep denial? Seems like you were saying the sky was black when it was only grey. Kind of speaks to credibility. How funny that the media reported Maliki made a bad move taking on Sadr and it was Sadr that elected to pull back after showing just how strong he was. Go ahead and google. Read what AP and others reported about the clash with Sadr. Now it is a completely different spin. When Maliki moved on Sadr, Democrats laughed, didn't they? And how did those Iraqis troops do? Now Maliki has defeated Sadr.
All Moran is saying is that Maliki is playing it both ways to get re-elected. In that sense, he shares some traits with Obama, but the Sunnis who are returning to the table do not favor a rapid pullout and warn that the Shia militants have more tricks up their sleeves. I am amazed at how quickly a war that we lost, has become a war we have won MR. Maliki defeats Sadr and we can go home...LOL. Sure, that's the ticket.
Now did the US pick up an Iranian backed Hizb'Allah rep today or did the Iraqis? The dynamics here are far deeper than partisan spin and media filter. After all, both were wrong about Iraq, yes? And McCain pushed the right plan, yes? And Patraeus, didn't betray us, right? And maybe we have learned something we and NATO can take to Afghanistan.
I see you refuse to admit
Michael, I see you refuse to admit that you overstated and made a demonstrably false claim. You were challenged on it, and you ran away and tried to divert. No sale.
I repeat--as far as I'm concerned at this point your credibility as an honest conversant in political discourse is now zilch. As in zero. As in none whatsoever. If you wish to be treated as anything other than a loony ranting wingnut, engage honestly.
There are many sites where you may senselessly blather to your heart's content without being seriously challenged on the use of dilatory and diversionary tactics, saying whatever your Rice Krispies tell you to. This is not one of them.
Tully: My detailed statement
Tully:
My detailed statement is here: http://sidewaysmencken.blogspot.com/2008/07/yes-maliki-backed-obama.html
Here's Byron York at National Review:
Maybe McCain shouldn?t have been so emphatic. What if Obama went to Iraq, decided his position was the correct one, and then, in a major campaign coup, received what appeared to be the endorsement of the Iraqi prime minister? And ? extra points ? made himself look more statesmanlike in the process?
Here's Rick Moran at Rightwingnuthouse:
It also sounds to me as if Maliki would prefer an actual timetable to the nebulous ?time horizons? desired by the Bushies. Hence, the embrace of Obama?s plan with the usual caveat that the timetable could be altered if necessary.
The translator was Maliki's guy.
The "correction" came through CENTCOM, hours after the initial story, and only after the WH called Maliki to complain.
The NYT retranslated the audiotape and their translation matches Spiegel's.
You want to take your frustration and disappointment out on me, fine. But you are making a fool of yourself. I'm right. You're wrong. Deal with it.
For the third and final
For the third and final time.
You refuse to admit that you overstated and made a demonstrably false factual claim, one capable of clear and precise definition and disproof. It has been so disproved. You were challenged on it, and you ran away and tried to divert to side issues and arguments and spin. You continue to do so. No sale.
One can apply many adjectives and descriptions to such behavior. Honesty and integrity are not among them. Without those, there is no credibility. As far as I'm concerned at this point your credibility as an honest conversant in political discourse of any kind is now zilch. As in zero. As in none whatsoever. Respect is earned, and your account is now sadly overdrawn.
Your "supports" of your diversionary and dilatory evasions do not change any of the above as they do not address the primary point. I am not interested in your side arguments and diversionary points. They do not support your demonstrably false claim of an "explicit endorsement of Obama's plan."
Only one simple proof could--an actual explicit endorsement of Obama's plan in toto by Maliki. There has been none shown. No "detailed statement" or additonal stoking of the fog machine or added aprtisan spin on your part can change that fact. Only Maliki could, by actually making such an explicit endorsement.
There are many sites where you may senselessly blather to your heart's content (including your own) and play whatever word games you wish without being seriously challenged on the overt use of dilatory and diversionary tactics, saying whatever your Rice Krispies tell you to. This is not one of them.
overstatements
Whether Michael "overstated" seems neither here nor there to me. He's repeatedly making a much better case about who Maliki is signaling he favors. The exact extent is obviously debatable, but the flavor is IMO that of Maliki, finger to the wind, positioning himself distinctly towards Obama.
Explicit? Maybe not, but that's in the eye of the beholder, especially when it comes to political theater. I'd lean towards describing it as implicit or implied. But still far more obvious than vague.
__________
I have often said, and oftener think, that this world is a comedy for those who think, and a tragedy for those who feel. -Horace Walpole
Moran describes Maliki as
Moran describes Maliki as positioning himself for elections. MR doesn't discuss that. So when Obama made statements just to win favor with the Left during the primary and now reverses himself, was he telling the truth? When? Then or now? The idea that one cherry picks levels of analysis to extract what is validating partisan positions NOW, is really not analysis.
Once again Obama wants to send a signal most destructive to our negotiating position. In this case to Iran because Maliki and his generals are hardly ready to see us leave. "If conditions permit" is the key element and a warning sign to all who are waiting us out. And if violence drops, what is the great harm for US security to be extended? Are we still "occupying" Germany and Japan?
red herrings and consent
I view the timetable-no-timetable perspective as a binary red herring. Only a moron fails to appreciate that any plan will require adjustment as circumstances evolve. I view the difference as at best a matter of pace and volume. And I view Maliki as positioning himself in favor of more, faster. Which is, loosely, where we seem to be able to expect Obama to be and not McCain. IMIO they've shown leanings, and they've hedged their positions to factor in for uncertainty. That's fine with me.
I am utterly untroubled that Obama, like any non-moron, continually issues caveats reserving the right to adjust his responses on the basis on future unforeseen events. That's a given for all of us without crystal balls.
Seems to me that our ongoing presence in Germany and Japan is based largely on German and Japanese consent. So its a worthwhile issue to explore what Iraq wants as well as what both BO and JM anticipate. McCain to me has sounded like he's in favor of the US having a non-token ongoing presence, possibly in the form of bases like we have in Germany and Japan and other places. IMO, the US would ideally like to reap the benefits of establishing a democracy by using Iraq as a base of future operations. Do Iraqis think that's a swell idea, or not? Stay tuned, folks.
I seriously doubt that the evolving Iraqi democracy will find that especially tenable. Best case scenario is that Iraqis keep finding a way to keep a non-trivial US presence in Iraq while pretending they can't wait for us to leave. That probably means no big bases, only some form of ongoing cooperation where the Iraqis retain substantial say in activities.
________
I have often said, and oftener think, that this world is a comedy for those who think, and a tragedy for those who feel. -Horace Walpole
Then only a moron
continues to defend his 16 month time line. When reports surfaced that amplified Power's earlier off the record remarks, Obama said he was in no way backing off his time line. If what you said were true Brian, Obama would simply say he would "conditions permitting" like to get the majority of forces out of Iraq 16 months after becoming President. This would not be so different from McCain's position with the exception of pushing the US interests in having some bases if for no other reason that to signal Iran and warn militants the US can act to bolster Iraqi security which is presently far from capable. So act firm to Liberals while slipping in a caveat that makes him no different than others? Wow, only a moron wouldn't see through that ploy and call Obama for what he is.
Moran explained why Maliki is playing it both ways and polls show Iraqi military and civilians are not as eager to see the US pullout as Democrats would like us to think. The Sunnis are on the line participating in politics and Obama's comments today overlook the fact political solutions can only be achieved in relative security. Such security is part of the solution. Iraqi police? LOL
Obama is an utter caveat of a politican. And the amazing thing Brian, is that you are completely untroubled by a candidate who just recently said the surge would fail, Iraq is lost, peace would have come had we exited years ago, that the US produced chaos etc. Now you are untroubled. Democrats were burned by the lack of money the Iraqis have shelled out for our efforts. They consider them ungrateful. So Obama would favor an Iraqi government that says thanks, now leave without any strategic gains in the face of continued Iranian hegemony? And will the Sunnis and our Muslim allies like that?
Terrorism still rocks Iraq. There is much to be achieved, so I have serious reservations about the candidate who said peace was highly unlikely to now act as though he knows what's up while trying to campaign for President in Iraq. And of course, that is exactly what Maliki is doing too. Both, ironically standing free in Iraq on the backs of US soldiers and the American faction that sent them and supported them despite the effort of many liberals like Obama to walk away in defeat. Fancy that.
one sentence takeaway
in politics you try to give folks the 1-sentence takeaway impression. Obama is aiming for "we'll leave Iraq quicker if I'm elected," This doesn't bother me. As I've said many times, I expect our actual policy to be based on actual events and trends and inside intelligence, regardless of campaign rhetoric, and I don't expect that what we actually do will vary that much depending on who wins the election.
I am not sure you know what "caveat" means.
_________
I have often said, and oftener think, that this world is a comedy for those who think, and a tragedy for those who feel. -Horace Walpole
Oh, I know what it means
Oh, I know what it means Brian. Some people call it bullshit.
Obama said in Jordan that he wouldn't hesitate to over rule commanders in war zones.....Oh really?
And this: (from www.iht.com)
"Obama hesitated when asked in the news conference whether voters should give McCain credit for his judgment in supporting the buildup of U.S. troops last year, which contributed to the reduction in violence in Iraq. Obama has mentioned other factors that contributed to the reduction, including U.S. understandings with Sunni leaders in Anbar Province."
Instead of giving McCain or the surge any credit, this sterling politician who was clearly wrong with his predictions about Iraq said;
""I will leave it to the voters to make that decision,"
All we have Brian is rhetoric and much of it from Obama clearly wrong
like here in Pakistan.
Hell, there is back door to every declaration, but not so much when you stick to principle and the soundness of your facts. Obama clearly blames Iraq for the recent problems in Afghanistan when it is obvious to most morons that Obama guessed very wrong about how much better the new government would be than Musharraf. Yes? Or was there a caveat to that prediction too, like all bets are off if Musharraf slips on a banana peel.
Sure, let's design policies for speed. My girlfriend is always telling me to slow down...LOL Gore's got a sweet idea on energy if a decade is what you want to be free from all hydrocarbons.. Come on Brian, you defend this guy and he hasn't the fortitude to acknowledge McCain was right and he was wrong. And didn't the Democrats count the days before Bush admitted he had ever made a mistake? Obama won't even admit when he changes his mind, back and forth and back and forth.
The only thing I suspect Obama is going to get us to faster is deeper shit, but then that is only my opinion based on the public record so far.
By the way, I meant jokingly that Obama has a caveat for explaining how each of his actions as a politician are not the usual crap behavior, but just twists and turn along his high road and honest delivery. Everything from the 2nd to public financing he proclaims, in other words, has a caveat that he deems gets him off any low road or mistaken hook.
The point is (and you seem
The point is (and you seem to fail to grasp it as well) that there is a major difference between editorialism and actual events, between "narrative" and reality. Some confuse the two. I do not. DS and MR are running their claims on editorialism and narrative, and the facts don't actually match up to the claims, and the reality is more complicated yet and does not neatly fit into the attempted narrative straight-jacketing.
As you may have noticed, I give very short shrift to the attempted conflation of editorial interpretations with factual events. You are free to draw your own editorial maps, but I'm sure as hell gonna say something when they don't match up and you attempt to claim that your map IS the territory and then proceed to use unethical and unprofessional and fallacious logical and emotive arguments to force the framing instead of addressing the actual territory. If you wanna frame, fit the frame to the picture, and not the other way around.
crosspost from centerfield thread
This comment crossposted to both the centerfield and stubborn facts threads.
First, here's a crystal-clear clarification:- Iraq's government spokesman is hopeful that U.S. combat forces could be out of the country by 2010.
So, there you go. MALIKI has said that, in his judgement, the needed timeframe for occupation troops is likely to end soonish, Maliki sure wasn't sounding like that in '06, was he? Of course not - things have changed.
As I saw you noticed on Stubborn Facts, Obama has changed^h^h^h^hadjusted his Iraq plan to include more of an uncertainty element based on facts on the ground. He also warns there will be a smaller, much longer-term force (presumably trainers and advisers, maybe even forces left in some bad spots). So, yeah, now they agree.
Shouldn't you be happy about this instead of dubious? We're getting close to winning. We can soon finally withdraw most of our troops without leaving Iraq to the mercy of gangs and extremists, except for a rump force for training and whatever bits of work may remain. Isn't this, er, GOOD? Now, maybe Afghanistan can have the beginnings of a chance.
The progress we've made in Iraq is certainly great news, but the
problem Obama has is in trying to acknowledge the progress made, while at the same time rejecting the surge that allowed for that progress. It's the surge that has allowed the possibility of a withdrawal, but Obama still refuses to fully recognize the success of the surge. Maybe he just doesn't want to give McCain credit, but it looks altogether confusing to acknowledge that conditionas on the ground have made it possible to consider drawing down troops, yet deny the very thing that made those conditions possible.
I mean, he could just he was wrong about the surge. Even candidates of destiny get things wrong, you know?
"In the world you will find tribulation, but be of good cheer, for I have overcome the world."
John 16:33
I would also note that
I would also note that regardless of the game Maliki is playing he is not exactly the best source of wisdom or forecasting for matters military. had we listened to Maliki 15 months ago*, we'd already be out, and Iraq would have lapsed back into chaos. Max Boot said it well enough there's no point in me repeating it. As Boot points out, the Iraqi generals and Defense Minister have different assessments--but they're not running for office. Maliki is posturing for his own internal political reasons, and anyone who has had dealings in the Middle East can see a familiar pattern here--pretend to agree and never say no outright. But never quite say yes, either. Smile and tell them things close to what they want to hear but stall and never quite close the deal. Tomorrow, effendi, is soon enough...have another cup of coffee while the dancing girls delight us.
Maliki (or any other serious leader) will follow the advice of his own generals, regardless of what he says or hints or implies. Because if he does not, he will no longer be in charge. This ain't Sheboygan we're talking about. After the Iraqi security forces/military reach competence levels, at least one condition must remain in place for Iraq to be a functioning democracy. A strong cross-province unifying institution in control of the military forces in the country. Right now that role is being held by the Coalition military forces. It will take at least one more round of national elections and a few more years of Iraqi military settling for the Iraqi government to shake down to stability to fill that role. And if the Iraqi government shows it cannot fill that role, the Iraqi military will.
Maliki is not afraid that the Iraqi military will not be competent or unified enough in 16 months or more. He's afraid they will be--and that the competence and unity of the government will not remotely match that of the military. That the military will not be as corruptable and factionalized as the government, and will thus not be controllable by factions in power.
[*--"Our forces are capable of taking over the security in all Iraqi provinces within a year and a half." --Maliki, May 2006]
You are exactly right. Even
You are exactly right. Even AP reported yesterday that the Iraqi military is not so gung ho on the US pulling out anytime soon. Seems Maliki is pulling an Obama. Moran essentially said the same thing, but MR wants to ignore his central point. Not only has Maliki flip flopped and given worng predictions but Democrats really said some nasty things about him. And if Iraq owes us so much for what we have done, how smart is it for little in pay back and no strategic gains short of Iraq being free of Saddam? Even some Democrats have voiced concerns that we need to stick around a bit and get better compensation for our effort. Funny, didn't we go to Iraq to steal their oil and erect a puppet. No wonder some Iraqis want us out ASAP. You are right on this issue Tully and you summarized it well at CF. It amazes me that the level of analysis many on the Left use, is adjusted for the facts that want to extract and not the truth that is there.
One point of conflation: Obama said repeatedly that he would talk to Iran. Well the US has talked to Iran. So let us cut to the chase Obama and take a good look at your solve-all called "talking":
"A senior diplomat from the U.S. joined envoys from five other world powers in Switzerland at Saturday's talks on Iran's nuclear program. Ahmadinejad told thousands of supporters gathered in the southern Iranian town of Yasouj that Undersecretary of State William Burns "spoke politely and in a dignified manner."
"It was a step toward recognizing the rights of the Iranian nation, toward justice, toward repairing your image in the world, toward cleaning 50 years of crimes you committed against the Iranian nation," Ahmadinejad said, addressing the U.S.
The United States and other Western nations accuse Iran of seeking to acquire nuclear weapons and demand that it freeze its uranium enrichment program. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. Ahmadinejad on Wednesday again vowed Iran will not "retreat one iota" from pursuing it."
So what is your plan B? Care to tell Americans? Sounds like Iraq and Iran will be big problems in the coming debates. And Obama should think twice about bringing up Pakistan where his predictions were as wrong as those on the surge. As I linked elsewhere, Obama using Iraq as the cause of recent problems in Afghanistan is not born out by the facts. Despite his touted media biased field trip campaign, Obama returns weakened on the entire range of Messianic solutions and predictions for Middle Eastern problems. Just a thought to those who think BO has the GE in the bag.
So, I guess Boot wasn't
So, I guess Boot wasn't serious about democracy - he wants the Iraqi generals to run things, instead of having those nasty POLITICIANS who get involved in POLITICS and, oh, no, try to get good deals for their people instead of living with imperialist deals like what Bush wants and living with being treated like a teenager by the Administration.
Shouldn't you and he be showing at least be showing some respect for the leader of that democracy he spend so mucn time backing? Oh, but not if it doesn't hew to the AMERICAN Republican line.
On timeframes: the President assured the American people and the world that the Surge would be effective in about three months, and honest to God gone from Iraq in six months because it'd all be over so fast. Looking at things that way, Maliki's idea was pretty reasonable, wasn't it? You righties are positively amnesic about the 3-6-month Surge deadline.
You've become a perfect Yglesias in reverse on this issue. He called Maliki both a Bush stooge back then and not anymore. He can't possibly be an independent actor, can he? I challenge you to try and figure out NONPARANOID possible GOOD reasons why Maliki might take this course of action (I can think of 4 beyond popularity of it). Remember, American mistakes have consequences, just like everybody elses'.
This is my last post on this subject. There's about as much point to continuing this as to posting on an Yglesias war thread. Enjoy whatever denying facts instead of adapting to them gets you.
Set down the Koolaid and
Set down the Koolaid and back away slowly, Jon. Boot said nothing of the sort. I said nothing of the sort. You're ranting. The reality is that Maliki knows that total withdrawal in 16 months is fantasy unless Iraq wants to court collapse and coup. He knows it, Chalabi knows it, their generals know it, and OUR generals know it. Maliki knows that his life expectancy reduces radically if we pull out abruptly. He also knows it's not going to happen unless conditions on the ground actually permit it.
On timeframes: the President assured the American people and the world that the Surge would be effective in about three months, and honest to God gone from Iraq in six months because it'd all be over so fast.
I have no clue where you got that from. Citation please? The surge began June 15th, when full strength was reached and surge operation began. (That was two days AFTER top Congressional Democrats declared that it was a failure--before it began.) It ended in November when drawdown of the added troops began. In a different sense, it began when it was first floated in the theater, and hasn't really ended yet. Your own mileage, different guages.
I challenge you to try and figure out NONPARANOID possible GOOD reasons why Maliki might take this course of action
Because he's running for re-election, and because his advisors have told him Obama will probably win the election here. (I think they're being overly optimistic, but not crazily so.) Or is this one of those games wherein any obvious and rational reasons offered are shot down by being defined as "paranoid?"
how come
How come the comments in this thread are appended to a different thread than the one to which they were originally attached? -BK
They're not. I even checked
They're not. I even checked the system log to make sure I didn't miss anything.