Good Grief! The Paranoid Conspiracy Class

I would be concerned about this more than the conspiracy Tully highlights. I have heard this several times already and this spin will undoubtedly be used to stir passions. Yes, white people (and maybe blacks) lied to pollsters to appear Obama supporters and then changed their vote because Obama is black (or if black, that they are afraid to reveal they won't support him). Sure, that is the answer. The more likely explanation is that women and men got pretty sick of the attitude towards Hillary. It was a feeding frenzy on Hillary' corpse beginning with the ambiguous duo's tag team during the debate and continuing from all quarters with plenty of sexist crap thrown in. And pundits were certain Bill was no longer the rock star Obama was -based on his "fairy tale" campaign. NH voters like Bill. Liberal media eating its own to make way for the great new hope.

Yep, that's the ticket -race or Hillary rigging the voting machines. I can understand the radical base that wants Obama, but Media makes me ill and that includes much of it here in NY.
No wonder Americans say nothing when Iran says tapes that show their navy threating our warships "a complete fabrication by the Pentagon". We tend to believe what best supports our desire, even if it means our military or our voting machines are liars. Some pundits obviously prefer to think NH had too many closet racists for Obama to win drumming up black support in SC. Hey, there are more women than blacks in SC and black women are certainly key to what follows.

Extremely less than convincing.

Best of the Web echoed yesterday what I was saying earlier--but on the assumption the polling was correct:

What Tucker is describing here is actually a liberal stereotype of white Americans--one that, by the way, is flattering to white liberals, who fancy themselves more enlightened than the typical person of pallor. Although we have our misgivings about Obama, his success will be a blessing inasmuch as it shows that this stereotype is about 40 years out of date.

The false inverse assumption here is that if Obama loses, it's because of race. Same false inverse assumption as in the BeliefNet link. My own primaries experience indicates that the small number of people who would vote AGAINST a candidate on race is more than offset by the number that will vote FOR them on race. This is especially true in Democratic primaries. Even in Iowa the insutling surprise displayed that Obama could win implied that those surprised had assumed white Democrats in Iowa were racist.

From reading through the turnout figures and totals, my own guess at this point would be that knowing Senator Clinton was in trouble, the Clinton campaign simply unleashed a superior massive GOTV effort, one heavily focused and concentrated on women and the elderly, and the weather cooperated. From exit polling it also looks as if independents failed to abandon McCain for Obama to the extent predicted. The high Obama projections were based in large part on his being able to capture the indies, which had it occured would have been reflected in lower margins for McCain. But the McCain margins were solid and in line with the pre-Iowa NH polls.

Obama turned out and captured a lot of young indies fairly new to the process, but Clinton turned out the NH rank & file Dems in greater numbers, and concentrated heavily on the demographics that most favored her in so doing. Classic! And she (her campaign) doesn't seem to have made the error that Romney's and Obama's did, that of wasting resources on heavier advertising saturation when those resources could be more effectively used "on the ground" to drive favorable turnout.

Obama has never really had to make that kind of sustained effort. He's always faced creampuff elections, and the one truly contested race he ever had he took by disqualifying his opponent. IOW, applied experience paid off. As I keep saying, loathe her or love her, but do not EVER underestimate her. She is one of the sharpest pols of the era. We just saw that demonstrated at the hands-on nuts & bolts campaign level.