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Brendan Miniter imagines a world without RINOs. The Senate GOP wonders whether to cut deals, get back to basics, or just jump out of the window. Now, I think that Kathleen is as wrong as Jonah thinks she is, but I think this talk of raising the drawbridge is unhelpful.
I'm struggling with a head cold, so I apologize if this isn't as coherent and non-mundane as I'd like, but I offer two suggestions. First, in the coming months, let's dispense with the RINO talk. It isn't helpful, and it's exclusionary rhetoric at a time when, so far as I can tell, our problem is that too few people are included under the big tent. That leads to the more important suggestion: The question has to be asked, just why is it that the GOP is no longer competitive in the Pacific northwest and New England? I can take a guess or two, I have opinions, and I bet that you do, too. But anecdota and confirmation bias aren't helpful right now.
If I want to know why my neighbor voted for Barack Obama, I could speculate - or I could ask him. If only there was a systematic way of finding out what ordinary Americans think by asking them! Instead of speculating about why we lost the election, the GOP should invest time and money in collecting real data: polling to find out where the public mind is at in various states. Real polls, not push polls - If you don't identify as a Republican, why not? Did you once? What drove you away? What are your main disagreements with the party? Focus groups may help too.
We may not like the results. It may be that voters really have simply abandoned a mindset that's hospitable to the GOP's prescriptions. But I doubt that: more likely, there are particular issues that are dealbreakers in particular states. Some of those issues may be temporary - unhappiness with President Bush and anger at the war are problems now that likely won't exist in two years. Others may be deeper-rooted. But we ought to know this stuff - it's worth investing the time to find out using whatever tools are available.
Note that this research question is entirely separate to the question of how we react to the data. Nevertheless, whether we should make concessions to longer term trends -- for example, if most people who would identify as Republicans in Oregon are pushed away by the party's opposition to same-sex marriage, should we be a smart, big-tent party tend and run a candidate there who has no dog in that fight? -- is a question that can't be meaningfully addressed without knowing more about the situation on the ground, and that means getting data not guesswork. It doesn't help us to be anything other than clear-eyed and realistic about the political landscape we find ourselves in.
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viable republicans in the northeast
There are likely multiple reasons and I'm sure I don't know them all. I'm happy to acknowledge that whatever your suspicions are, some of them are right. But I think I've got some insight for the GOP, as long as they are willing to accept my testimony.
Let's start with the tales of the last 2 prominent GOP governors from Massachusetts. William Weld was a popular figure here in MA, and was elected governor twice.He was a bit of a libertine, but a smart sensible policy guy in the mold of the Rockefeller repubs the faithful now call RINOs and routinely disparage, When he looked for greener pastures as an ambassador (to Mexico I think), his bid was ruthlessly scuttled by archconservative Jesse Helms and the rest of the party let it happen.
What lesson do you think all of closely watching New England took from this story? I'll tell you..the lesson that this sort of republican is really not representative of the GOP and is in fact unwelcome, that's what.
Skip the intervening schlep or two and fast forward to Mitt Romney. Here's a venture capitalist with vast financial experience who did a great job bailing out our Olympics. Here's a guy who any objective watcher can see is quite conservative in his personal social views. Romney is a Mormon with a big family who exemplifies conservative personal social conduct, but who tempered his policy views because that's what a republican has to do to win 50% +1 votes and actually get a chance to govern in Massachusetts.
When he runs for President, he's routinely dismissed as not conservative enough. A substantial portion of the coverage he gets is about how socons won't buy in. And you can't blame the media for reporting THAT truth. So Romney gets no traction despite his superior bizness bonafides and executive experience 1) running a company, 2)running a quasi-federal government enterprise, and 3)running a state.
What lesson do you think all of closely watching New England took from this story? I'll tell you...the same lesson. That this sort of republican is really not representative of the GOP and will always be regarded with suspicion.
When I make a post here at SF saying that Romney's NYT editorial on the Big 3 shows he gets it on fiscal issues, what do I get by way of response? A comment about his lackluster convention speech from someone in Arizona. {Not that you were wrong, per se, Chris. I have no idea. My point is about how the rest of the country regards northeast republicans.)
If Republicans in the rest of the country are going to continue to presume that any republican from New England is a proto-Mike-Dukakis, they might as well close up shop and save everyone a bunch of time and money.
OK let's move on to our state legislature that nowboasts of 16 republicans among the 160 seats:
Do republicans even bother to present opposition and make a PR effort on things like toll hikes and regulations preventing new medical clinics from being built in the suburbs? Nope, because it's gone so far that the dwindling GOP cohort is afraid that if they raise a stink they'll be banished to the broom closet while the other 144 people make all the decisions. They do anyway, but this fact seems to escape notice in the dead letter office of the MA GOP.
There's only 1 word for the GOP in New England. Moribund.
What's the prescription? Outreach. Outreach with an understanding and appreciation of the local electorate. Then when you get new members of a neo-rockerfellerian type, you have to actually appreciate them, not take them for granted and make them feel like you did them a favor by letting them in as a "RINO."
Nobody really wants to join a club if many of the rest of the members feel they don't really belong. At least not unless the benefits of membership are too great to pass up. So if the offer feels like a seat in a folding chair at a card table by the noisy kitchen... .
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I have often said, and oftener think, that this world is a comedy for those who think, and a tragedy for those who feel. -Horace Walpole