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Anything on your mind?
So far everything has gone like I thought...
I can not say I have been surprised by anything that has been done by this Congress or President. I am still a little miffed that a lot of the most vocal complainers that I know, personally, are people who refused to vote for McCain because he was not conservative enough. You certainly would not have gotten Obamacare and likely not the kind of stimulus program you got if McCain had gotten in. Oh, and lets not forget two Supreme Court Justices so far.
With that said, I actually fear a backfire in 2012 if there is a new conservative House and Senate in 2011. First off, we have to acknowledge that an all out repeal of Obamacare will not happen. There won't be enough to override the veto because many of the Dems who may have voted for a repeal will probably be washed out in the tide of the election. This will put the conservatives in needing to rework the plan to be more successfully oriented. However, any improvement will also likely just help the economy. When it comes to the economy, it has been historically easy for a sitting President to claim the improving economy. So, if the Congress tries to stonewall the President and get in a veto battle with him complete with standoffs, it is also easier for the President to spin it against Congress. I fear a repeat of the Clinton presidency where a Republican Congress gives Clinton a working economic system that allowed him to be reelected. I can see the same thing happening in 2012. If the GOP actually gets control of both the Senate and the House, I am not sure they can come out as the winner. It should be better for the people, but not for the party. At this point, better for the people is the main point. However, if they play control as a political weapon, it could backfire big time on the GOP in 2012.
Brian and I were talking
Brian and I were talking about repeal at Donklephant recently. As I see things, it’s obvious that Obamacare won't be repealed in 2011. We probably won’t have the votes to get it through the Senate, and we certainly won’t have the votes to override Obama’s veto.
But that isn’t the point of running on a repeal platform in 2010. The point is to pass a repeal bill, forcing Senate Democrats, or, better yet, the President, to block it. In the meantime, we will see “continued deterioration of healthcare provision,” all of which sets the stage for the showdown in 2012, where we can run on removing the stumbling blocks to repeal: the President and any Senate Democrat who supported Obamacare. The goal is to keep the pressure on and leverage public opposition with a view to full repeal in 2013.
And is that a viable goal? It's a sensible goal as a matter of policy, and it's a viable goal as a matter of politics, because the public outside of the Democratic party appears to favor repeal by wide margins. We see it in opinion polls, and we just saw it at the ballot box in Missouri.
I guess that is my concern.
I guess that is my concern. The economy needs some type of stability in issues like health care and taxes. So there is going to be incredible pressure on Congress to do something now rather than later. Especially since the longer things go, the harder it will be to shift the gears and back out of it. I am not sure that the current grassroot movement is going to willing to be accept any kind of temporary solution short of full repeal. I have already heard some really upset that Scott Brown has not been everything they thought they were getting. He has only been in office four months. Patience does not seem to be one of their virtues. So, is the idea of just holding off until 2012 going to be a viable political strategy or is the whole movement going to implode if it does not get what it wants by 2011?
I agree that what you state is a sensible goal. I am just not sure if it is going to be completely viable in this political environment. To quote Varuca Salt from the Willy Wonka movie, "I want it and I want it now!" I am not sure that is not the attitude of the whole movement right now. If they don't get it now, what will they do? I don't think they care about how the political system works.
will they still favor it by then?
There's a grumpiness bubble right now. Will we see widespread support for repeal sustain itself among moderates and independents if such a battle takes center stage for a year?
Or will we see a more even split which means that repeal isn't viable? That's my forecast. It will be stalled by a sufficient number of folks who won't want to go back to the drawing board without even trying the contentiously formed reform.
But suppose by some series of all favorable bounces the GOP re-takes the white house and passes repeal. That means we'll be right back where we started in 2008, except that we've had another 4 or 5 years of 7 to 10% annual cost growth. The GOP will have unraveled the democratic reform effort, which improved access but didn't really solve the most pressing cost issues.
At this point, the problem of healthcare access and price will be ALL the GOP's to solve. We'll have a very big and growing group of Americans who will have faced increasing cost and access problems that have been at an unignorable level for over a decade. And conservatives will be trying to tell those folks they're going to fix it with tax breaks and more individual responsibility and economic freedom and so on. You'll be more on your own, but you'll like it because the market will solve cost issues all by itself. All the big healthcare providers won't take advantage of individual's lack of collective purchasing power.
No substantive no or creative ideas. Instead, a re-hash of all the principles that brought the GOP into power beginning in 1994 but inexplicably didn''t come to pass or didn't work, depending on who you ask.
My mathematical sense is this: with cost increases in the 7 to 10% range for another 4 years, most Americans will consider that story to be a fantasy unless their income is at least in the top third.
If the GOP wants to take this issue and carry it forward, they damn well better plan to have a clear but fairly detailed description of this alleged better functioning healthcare system that provides broad access at an affordable cost to most folks. And THAT is what's missing, not some clever short term strategy.
If Obama and the democrats are smart, that's how they should respond to repeal. They should say "We're listening. Describe your detailed plan that results in a much better functioning healthcare system that provides broad access at an affordable cost to most folks. Control costs and preserve access and we're on board."
I can hear Obama now: "We know the Republicans. They want to turn back the clock to 2007. You'll each be on your own against the big insurance companies and healthcare systems. The free market will fix everything once we deregulate and get government out of the way. How'd that work out for you in 2007?" 2007. 2007. 2007. 2007. Did I mention 2007?"
On the brewing debate between Paul Ryan and Paul Krugman,
over his Roadmaap, I agree with this, from Ezra Klein:
Agreed. I also think Megan McArdle has it right also. Whether you agree with Ryan's plan or not, I think it's off-base to imply bad faith, and seeing that he's probably one of the few people (of either party, really) in Congress putting forth a serious plan to deal with the deficit, I think his rep as a serious operator stands.
Krugman is often right about many things, but he's wrong here, and operating in his worst partisan hackery mode here. Krugman = FAIL.